Reflections on the Drive Back Home

My first entry on my experience traveling to New Mexico to campaign for Obama was made on the drive over. This is my second entry and it is being made on the drive back. The entire time we were here we worked going door to door getting out the vote or phone banking. There was one exception.

(Locals line up for Biden rally)

On the first day we helped staff a rally for Joe Biden. That was a treat.

(Biden takes on McCain and Palin for negative attacks and ignoring the real issues that matter to working families.)

Other than the Biden rally, we worked out of a small field office in Anthony, New Mexico. Anthony is a city within Dona Ana County which is located in southern New Mexico. It borders Mexico and Texas. The state and national border lines crisscross this area.

(Jeanne and I take a photo during our door-to-door canvassing. We knocked on over 500 doors in the Sunland Park area. Well named, it is all sun few trees.)

The Obama campaign knows that all politics is local. Here is one example. The first thing full-time organizers of Anthony did when they arrived was to canvass the area asking voters about their local concerns. They understood that if they had any hope of increasing voter turnout in this impoverished community they had to connect their national campaign to their local concerns. Voter turnout had previously averaged two voters for every ten registered voters. They also had to recruit and train locals to speak to their neighbors and bring in more people to walk the streets to encourage participation one on one. This is where the San Antonio volunteers played a role.

(Our great field organizer Luis preps us for another day of canvassing.)

When Jeanne and I spoke to reluctant voters we brought up their local challenges. We told them if their community voted in larger numbers and were organized they could hold their local and state officials more accountable. And if this happened they could do something about the area water treatment plant that had to close due to high levels of arsenic from nearby dairy farms or the underemployment in their area or the illegal dumping that happens behind their homes.

Until November 4th Democrats will continue to reach out to Dona Ana County residents to include them in our great democratic experiment. My hope is that when election day passes the local community will have more experience voting and more knowhow to make a difference in their government.

(Local organizer of Mecillas, New Mexico at town square.)

Bus Trip for Change

Some where between San Antonio and El Paso (10-16-08; 10:15pm) - I'm on a bus to Las Cruces, New Mexico with Jeanne and about 40 other Obama volunteers. This is the first time we travel to another state to campaign.

I believe in the tested principle that all politics is local. If you want to make a difference start in your own community. And if you have the ggod fortune to represent a community in elected office never forget who you serve-your locals and their local concerns.

So its a stretch for me to leave San Antonio to travel to Las Cruces to persuade New Mexicans to vote for Obama. But I'm doing it. Why? Because this is a historic election. And, I want to tell my kids and grandkids how I did my part.

Palin's Speech

I give her 10 points for hardcore partisan, divide-and-conquer rhetoric. But I wonder if her audience should have been larger than the party faithful? Is being a crusader of the culture wars going to win over moderates and independents?

Who is winning: Obama or McCain?

The US does not select its president based on a popular national vote. Rather, as many of you know, it is a system of elections held within each state on the same day. Each
state has a certain number of electoral college votes based on population with the minimum being 3 electoral college votes. The candidate that wins the most number of popular votes within a state wins that state's total number of electoral college votes. It takes 270 electoral college votes to win the presidency.

Based on historic election results and current trends, Democrats can count on 14 states plus D.C. going their way, thereby giving them 193 electoral college votes to start. Republicans can count on 21 states going their way, thereby giving them 168 electoral college votes to start.

The following table lists the remaining states that will determine the overall election. The last column identifies who is ahead in the latest polls. It's still early, but at this point it appears Obama has an edge the width of a hair given that Colorado and New Hampshire are within the margin of error.

Battle Ground States
EC Votes..........2004 Winning%.....Most Recent Poll.....Winning Margin %
Wisconsin.............11..........50% - R..........7.2% - Obama
Iowa.......................7..........50% - R..........5.3% - Obama
Pennsylvanian.....23..........51% - D..........5.0% - Obama
Minnesota............10..........51% - D..........4.5% - Obama
New Mexico..........5..........50% - R..........4.3% - Obama
Michigan...............18..........51% - D..........4.3% - Obama
Colorado................8..........52% - R..........0.4% - Obama
New Hampshire.....4.......50% - D..........0.3% - Obama
Virginia.................13..........54% - R..........tied
Nevada..................4..........51% - R..........1.0% - McCain
Ohio.......................21..........51% - D..........1.2% - McCain
Florida..................25..........52% - R..........3.0% - McCain
North Carolina.....14..........56% - R..........4.2% - McCain
Montana..................3..........59% - R..........5.3% - McCain
Missouri...............11..........53% - R..........7.0% - McCain

Focus should remain on McCain

While it may be tempting to focus on Governor Palin's qualifications to be Vice President and President if required, I think the focus should be on McCain and how his selection reflects on the type of decision making we can expect from him.

Here are a few questions I'm curious about:

Was this a quick gut-instinct decision or did he fully vet his nominee? Today we've learned that no one from McCain's campaign sifted through the archives of her local newspaper which are only accessible in paper form. The first to do so was a Democratic operative.

How does he rationalize keeping his main campaign message that experience matters? His VP pick is a 44 year old with only 18 months in statewide office, zero on foreign policy.

How does he rationalize selecting a VP with conflicting positions on key issues. One we know about is recognizing man's contribution to global warming. He believes it. She does not.

First thoughts on Gov Palin

McCain needs to be given credit for helping break a gender barrier for the Republican Party by appointing a woman to be his VP nominee. No other Republican presidential nominee has done this.

He also must be given credit for knowing his candidacy is in need of a game changing move. This appointment, like a Hail Mary pass, comes with both risks and rewards. The risks are becoming evident:

(1) Trooper-Gate: a bipartisan state legislative panel in Alaska has launched an ethics investigation of her alleged wrongful firing of the Public Safety Commissioner who would not fire the Governor's former brother-in-law, a current state trooper who is going through a messy custody fight with her sister.

(2) She differs from McCain on some key energy issues. She does not believe global warming is man made and she supports drilling in the Alaskan Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

(3) She may be more ideological and to the right of George W. Bush: Here are a few of her positions: She supports teaching creationism in public schools. She opposes abortion in cases of rape or incest. She has a record of cutting child care services in her state. She does not believe the polar bear should be protected by the Endangered Species Act.

Polar bears...who doesn't like polar bears? Well, I guess seals don't. Other than seals and maybe fish, who doesn't want to protect polar bears?

[All joking aside, the declining population of polar bears is a serious concern. Go here to learn more: www.worldwildlife.org/species/finder/polarbear/threats.html]

The next few weeks will tell us more about her positions and her ability to handle a national campaign.

Obama's Nomination Speech

This part of an ABC news story sums up my feelings the night of Obama's speech.

Looking around the filled stadium at people dancing, cheering, and applauding, Texas state repesentative and delegate Mike Villarreal had tears in his eyes.

"I want to be able to tell my kids I was here when a black man and a white man got elected to lead our party," Villarreal said, "And I'm part of that for them."

Villarreal described moments in history you read about in textbooks and, taking a minute to collect himself he said, "This is one of them."

Sorry to get tears on your keyboard, but it was an emotional moment for anyone reflecting on how far we have come as a nation with this act.

For the entire news story go to: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Conventions/story?id=5677582&page=1

Day 3 of DNC

Day 3 was as a great day for the Dem's.

When I left the convention hall I felt I had just left a theatrical performance in the best sense. There was drama, suspense, characters and a surprise ending.

With Hillary offering all of New York's votes to put Obama over the top and moving to stop the roll call vote to nominate Obama by acclimation, you could not ask for any more. She did what she needed to do and then some to help unity her party.

Bill was brilliant. My favorite part of his speech was the following:

“The choice is clear. The Republicans in a few days will nominate a good man who has served our country heroically and who suffered terribly in a Vietnamese prison camp. He loves his country every bit as much as we do. As a senator, he has shown his independence of right-wing orthodoxy on some very important issues.

But on the two great questions of this election -- how to rebuild the American dream and how to restore America's leadership in the world -- he still embraces the extreme philosophy that has defined his party for more than 25 years.

And it is, to be fair to all the Americans who aren't as hard-core Democrats as we, it's a philosophy the American people never actually had a chance to see in action fully until 2001, when the Republicans finally gained control of both the White House and the Congress.

Then we saw what would happen to America if the policies they had talked about for decades actually were implemented. And look what happened.”

Two things I love most about this quote. First, Bill starts, not in the common defensive posture having to explain why we D's are patriotic, but by recognizing McCain loves his country as much as we do. He just has bad ideas of how to love his country.

Second, he subordinates McCain's strengths-character and history of being a maverick-by recognizing them and setting them aside for this election's central question. This campaign is about choosing the best person to “rebuild the American dream” and “restore America's leadership in the world.”

Hillary Clinton Delegates

On the first day of the convention, delegates are told to show up early and pick a seat that will remain assigned to us throughout the entire convention.

I sit among a combination of Obama and Hillary delegates. The Hillary delegates have a lot to share and are in different places in terms of accepting the outcome of the Primary and supporting Obama. I've learned a lot from them.

Today during Hillary's speech one of my Hillary-delegate friends cried. She leaned over and told me how hard it was to accept Hillary's defeat, but that supporting Obama would be easier given Hillary's strong endorsement of him.

I've come to appreciate the depth of support Hillary enjoys with many and the real emotions that must be worked through for each person in their own way.