Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Palin's Speech
I give her 10 points for hardcore partisan, divide-and-conquer rhetoric. But I wonder if her audience should have been larger than the party faithful? Is being a crusader of the culture wars going to win over moderates and independents?
Who is winning: Obama or McCain?
The US does not select its president based on a popular national vote. Rather, as many of you know, it is a system of elections held within each state on the same day. Each
state has a certain number of electoral college votes based on population with the minimum being 3 electoral college votes. The candidate that wins the most number of popular votes within a state wins that state's total number of electoral college votes. It takes 270 electoral college votes to win the presidency.
Based on historic election results and current trends, Democrats can count on 14 states plus D.C. going their way, thereby giving them 193 electoral college votes to start. Republicans can count on 21 states going their way, thereby giving them 168 electoral college votes to start.
The following table lists the remaining states that will determine the overall election. The last column identifies who is ahead in the latest polls. It's still early, but at this point it appears Obama has an edge the width of a hair given that Colorado and New Hampshire are within the margin of error.
Battle Ground States
EC Votes..........2004 Winning%.....Most Recent Poll.....Winning Margin %
Wisconsin.............11..........50% - R..........7.2% - Obama
Iowa.......................7..........50% - R..........5.3% - Obama
Pennsylvanian.....23..........51% - D..........5.0% - Obama
Minnesota............10..........51% - D..........4.5% - Obama
New Mexico..........5..........50% - R..........4.3% - Obama
Michigan...............18..........51% - D..........4.3% - Obama
Colorado................8..........52% - R..........0.4% - Obama
New Hampshire.....4.......50% - D..........0.3% - Obama
Virginia.................13..........54% - R..........tied
Nevada..................4..........51% - R..........1.0% - McCain
Ohio.......................21..........51% - D..........1.2% - McCain
Florida..................25..........52% - R..........3.0% - McCain
North Carolina.....14..........56% - R..........4.2% - McCain
Montana..................3..........59% - R..........5.3% - McCain
Missouri...............11..........53% - R..........7.0% - McCain
state has a certain number of electoral college votes based on population with the minimum being 3 electoral college votes. The candidate that wins the most number of popular votes within a state wins that state's total number of electoral college votes. It takes 270 electoral college votes to win the presidency.
Based on historic election results and current trends, Democrats can count on 14 states plus D.C. going their way, thereby giving them 193 electoral college votes to start. Republicans can count on 21 states going their way, thereby giving them 168 electoral college votes to start.
The following table lists the remaining states that will determine the overall election. The last column identifies who is ahead in the latest polls. It's still early, but at this point it appears Obama has an edge the width of a hair given that Colorado and New Hampshire are within the margin of error.
Battle Ground States
EC Votes..........2004 Winning%.....Most Recent Poll.....Winning Margin %
Wisconsin.............11..........50% - R..........7.2% - Obama
Iowa.......................7..........50% - R..........5.3% - Obama
Pennsylvanian.....23..........51% - D..........5.0% - Obama
Minnesota............10..........51% - D..........4.5% - Obama
New Mexico..........5..........50% - R..........4.3% - Obama
Michigan...............18..........51% - D..........4.3% - Obama
Colorado................8..........52% - R..........0.4% - Obama
New Hampshire.....4.......50% - D..........0.3% - Obama
Virginia.................13..........54% - R..........tied
Nevada..................4..........51% - R..........1.0% - McCain
Ohio.......................21..........51% - D..........1.2% - McCain
Florida..................25..........52% - R..........3.0% - McCain
North Carolina.....14..........56% - R..........4.2% - McCain
Montana..................3..........59% - R..........5.3% - McCain
Missouri...............11..........53% - R..........7.0% - McCain
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